A trend performance analysis tool is typically used to monitor sensor data and parameter settings for a technical process. One type of technical process where a trend performance analysis tool is used is with aircraft engines. In this example, engine data are sampled from an airplane at different times of the flight and transmitted to a ground station. The data are collected and distributed to an aircraft engine expert for that particular airplane fleet. The data are preprocessed and evaluated by a trend performance analysis tool. In particular, the trend performance analysis tool monitors a multitude of engine variables. Data for each variable are compared against trending baseline data. If the data for a particular variable exceed a predetermined threshold limit and the data are not considered to be an outlier, then the trend performance analysis tool issues an alert. Typically, the predetermined alert threshold limit for each variable is set at a level that is below a limit that would generate a fault warning flag in the cockpit of the airplane. In particular, the predetermined alert threshold limit for each variable is at a level that would create an awareness of a potential problem before it turns into an event that could result in a revenue loss for the airplane. Examples of potential revenue loss situations are a grounding of an airplane, damage to an engine, departure delay, etc.
After an alert has been issued by the trend performance analysis tool, the aircraft engine expert examines trend charts for each of the variables in order to determine if an event has truly occurred which warrants further action. If the data in any of the trend charts are suspicious, then the aircraft engine expert notifies the fleet management of that particular airplane and suggests actions to further diagnose and/or actions to correct any causes for the alert. Examples of possible actions are borescoping the engine, engine washing, overhauling the engine, etc. A problem with this approach is that many alerts are generated which are false and do not warrant further diagnostic or corrective actions. There are a number of reasons for the high number of false alerts being issued. One is that the data quality varies considerably between different engines. Another reason is that predetermined alert threshold levels for a variable are preset globally and not selected for an individual airplane. Other reasons for issuing an excessive number of alerts are noise generated from poorly calibrated and deteriorating sensors, the use of faulty data acquisition systems, and slow wear of the engine which results in a constant change of normal operating conditions.
If too many alerts are generated, then the aircraft engine expert has to constantly examine the trend charts to eliminate the false alerts from the true alerts. Constantly examining the trend charts becomes a very time consuming task when there is a large number of engines to monitor as typically is the case for a large fleet of airplanes. In addition, the expert's senses may become dulled to the true alerts due to the large amount of false positive alerts. Therefore, there is a need for a system and method that produces less false positive alerts and can assist in reducing the excessive number of false alerts generated by a trend performance analysis tool.